Dan's let's get shorty

Short Position Update for August 31, 2023:

NFGC

Sep 30 - 1,040,000
Oct 14 - 666,790
Oct 31 - 675,100
Nov 15 - 616,390
Nov 30 - 659, 530
Dec 13 - 622, 000
Dec 30 - 593,340
Jan 13 - 481,350
Jan 31 - 399,960
Feb 15 - 398,110
Feb 28 - 395,590
Mar 15 - ?
Mar 31, 2023 - 542,360
Apr 14, 2023 - 475,660
Apr 28, 2023 - 352,660
May 15, 2023 - 347,250
May 30, 2023 - couldn't find it reported
Jun 15, 2023 - 432,900 (not sure of the date for this figure, it could be from May 30)
Jun 30, 2023 - 551,550 (just reported)
Jul 15, 2023 - 447,780
Jul 31, 2023 - 536,350
Aug 15, 2023 - 730,180
Aug 31, 2023 - 709,760



NFG.V

Aug 14 - 1,190,712
Aug 30 - 1,168,127
Sep 14 - 1,175,202

Sep 30 - 1,260,000
Oct 14 - 1,252,170
Oct 31 - 1,090,000
Nov 15 - 666,790
Nov 30 - 1,280,000
Dec 14 - 661,543
Dec 30 - 586,310
Jan 14 - 632,722
Jan 30 - 635,080
Feb 15 - 650,130
Feb 28 - 614,420
Mar 15 - 756,770
Mar 30 - 831,732
Apr 14, 2023 - 855,056
Apr 29, 2023 - 733,561
May 14, 2023 - 665,700
May 30, 2023 - 617,194
Jun 14, 2023 - 763,878
Jun 29, 2023 - 724,765
Jul 14, 2023 - 676,479
Jul 30, 2023 - 936,957
Aug 14, 2023 - 870,753
Aug 30, 2023 - 940,905



Total

Sep 30 - 2.300,000
Oct 14 - 1,918,960
Oct 31 - 1,765,100
Nov 15 - 1,283,180
Nov 30 - 1,939,530
Dec 14 - 1,283,543
Dec 30 - 1,179,650
Jan 13 - 1,113,000
Jan 31 - 1,035,040
Feb 15 - 1,048,240
Feb 28 - 1,010,010
Mar 15 - 1,157,000 + any AMEX increase
Mar 31, 2023 - 1,374,100
Apr 14, 2023 - 1,330,716
Apr 29, 2023 - 1,086,221
May 14, 2023 - 1,012,950
May 30, 2023 - 964,444 (using May15 AMEX #s)
Jun 14, 2023 - 1,196,778
Jun 29, 2023 - 1,228,029
Jul 15, 2023 - 1,115,259
Jul 31, 2023 - 1,473,307
Aug 15, 2023 - 1,600,933
Aug 31, 2023 - 1,650,665


Total Increase / Decrease for Two Week Period

Oct 14, 2022 - down 381,040
Oct 31, 2022 - down 153,860
Nov 15, 2022 - down 481,920
Nov 30, 2022 - up 656, 350
Dec 14, 2022 - down 655,987
Dec 30, 2022 - down 103,893
Jan 14 2023 - down 65,578
Jan 31 2023 - down 79,032
Feb 15 2023 - up 13,200
Feb 28 2023 - down. 38,230
Mar 15 2023 - up at min.142,300 (no AMEX #s)
Mar 31 2023 - up 364,100 (from Feb 28)
Apr 14 2023 - down 43,384 (for 2 weeks)
Apr 29 2023 - down 244,495 (for two weeks)
May15, 2023 - down 73,271
May30, 2023 - down 48,506 (using May 15 data for AMEX)
Jun 14, 2023 - up 232,334
Jun 29, 2023 - up 31,251
Jul 14, 2023.- down 112,770
Jul 31, 2023 - up 358,048
Aug 15, 2023 - up 127,626
Aug 31, 2023 - up 49,732

Discussion:

It's a bit of a mystery, really, what the view of the Short position is regarding NFG, at this point in time.

We have some solid evidence of what this viewpoint has been over time from the posts of the main basher over on the Stockhouse.com comment board, whom we referred to as Bucco (in my view he is a likely paid basher with links to Lil Shorty).

His main criticism during most of the past was simply that NFG had too high of a market cap, and NFG had simply not proven it had a commercial gold deposit proven up.

And, then there were the 'analyst reports' written by an unnamed analyst, from a smallish investment firm abroad, that were prepared a few times with this same viewpoint, written in a smug, dismissive tone, implying that NFG was overvalued, and various members of NFG's management team were overly promotional, and unjustly magnifying NFG's drill results into more than what they should rightly be described as.

So, that was the Short's viewpoint in the past, I'm quite convinced.

But, stellar results have continued coming from NFG on their drilling on North Queensway (NQW) for months on end, and other news flow has become extremely positive . This latest recent news flow includes:

1) the Seismic project completed and now in analysis stage to determine the deep geologic structure deep below NQW, to further pinpoint even more focused drilling into deeper levels. Orogenic gold deposits are know to show higher grades of gold ore at deeper levels, and can have gold ore going as deep as one to two kilometers. NQW has mainly been drilled only to shallow levels, around 200 or 250 meters below surface.

2) the recent Memoradum of Understanding (MOU) with Maritime Resources ( MAE.V) to quite possibly use their newly purchased gold processing plant a couple hours drive away from the Queensway project (QW) to begin processing gold ore from NQW in the future. Plus, NFG made a $2 million CAD investment in Maritime to facilitate the recent purchase of this gold ore processing facility this August, along with two other companies who invested in Maritime, both of which have seeming solid familiarity with Maritime.

Additionally, initial drilling and other exploratory work along the Appleton and JBP faults on the huge Queensway project in the south and on the other fault, known as the JBP faultline, has been encouraging, but, neither areas have been drilled much, YET. NFG's drilling efforts have been focused on the NQW segment, which is only a small percentage of the total QW project. So, the future may bring more ongoing positive news flow from these areas, as they are explored.

In other words, it seems quite obvious that NFG has proven up a very significant commercial deposit of gold on NQW, and given the massive size of the QW project, and all the signs of gold along the two faultlines of the entire QW project, the upside potential for the size of the gold ore resource of QW appears to be massive.

Thus, the original notion of the Short position, that NFG is seriously over valued in terms of market cap, appears to have been decisively proven wrong.

You can see this conclusion very plainly in the posts of the Shareholders of NFG/NFGC on the message boards, CEO.ca and Stockhouse.com. These are the well reasoned opinions of many seasoned resource investors, and the change in the tone of confidence has been very pronounced in the recent months.

I think the stellar results from the new Iceberg zone along NQW at the end of May 2023 may have been the turning point in the confidence of many of the knowledgeable shareholders of NFG. We also saw a noticeable uptick in volume on the AMEX at this same time, and now the volume on the AMEX seems to be significantly greater than that on the Venture exchange. Thus, this may indicate that knowledge of NFG/NFGC as a stellar gold stock investment may have caught on in the much larger American investment universe, and this knowledge is no longer mostly confined to the traditional Canadian resource investors.

So, what is the viewpoint of the Short Players in NFG, now?

The Short position increased by about 60% this summer. The Short position had been around 2,000,000 shares short in the fall of 2022. By May of 2023, this position had been reduced to around 1,000,000 shares short. But, this summer, the Short position has increased to around 1,600,000 shares, where it stands at the end of August, the latest disclosed figures.

A possible likely assumption is that the Short position initiated a campaign to take advantage of the 'summer doldrums' of lesser investor interest and lower trading volume in gold stocks, to try to drive the stock price of NFG down.

The Short position is also aware (based upon posts made by Bucco in the past) that NFG has an authority granted by both the Venture and AMEX exchanges to sell NEWLY minted shares directly into these two markets. This authority is called an 'At the Market' authority (ATM). Thus, there is constant selling pressure from NFG itself.

The Short position (as told in posts of Bucco's IDs) was confident in their ability to cover their short position, because NFG would still be needing to raise cash thru financings in the future, and selling shares from the ATM facility by NFG would be a strong supply of shares being sold in the future for the Short position to cover its position.

Thus, these two factors, Summer Doldrums plus the ATM selling pressure by NFG itself, combined to make pile on selling by the Short position make plausible sense to drive the share price of NFG down this summer.

And, this did happen. From mid July to mid August there was a long string of continuous down days for the price of NFG/NFGC.

Note, also, that the price on the two exchanges trade in tandem. So, it's a question whether trading on just one exchange alone can control the price of both NFG/NFGC.

Erich Sprott (ES) has been buying shares consistently these past few weeks, often 20,000 shares per day, and sometimes more ( often 40,000 and even higher per day).Is he buying directly in the market, or is he arranging these purchases directly from NFG, and recording them in the daily trading transaction?....I ask this question because the volume of shares is always so precisely at 20,000 or other round numbers.

One poster on CEO.ca notes that ES is merely trying to keep his percentage ownership in NFG at the same percentage it has been, as NFG sells shares to raise capital from the ATM facility.

So, the balance between selling forces and buying forces has the above factors working. However, the Short positions increase of 600,000 shares this summer has been a manipulation tactic, aimed at driving down the NFG share price, rather than a selling pressure based on fundamental developments of NFG. Thus, this additional Short selling pressure simply cannot continue at the same pace or duration without further putting the Short Sellars at even greater risk exposure....and, obviously, WHEN the Short Players begin to COVER their short position again, this provides additional buying pressure.

So, the main selling pressure for NFG stock will come from NFG itself thru the ATM authority. And, it is always possible that NFG may be able to arrange some big sale of shares to interested institutions, just as they appear to be providing 'cross sales' to ES of precise, round number of shares.

Additionally, approximately 70% of NFG shares are held by insiders. And, they have agreements that no insider will sell their shares without the consent of the other insiders. This leaves a fairly small amount of retail shares for possible selling. But, the retail shareholders are very enthusiastic believers in NFG's long term ( and short term, too) prospects, so not very interested in selling.

The buying pressure will come from the ongoing fundamental news flow from NFG, the fairly obvious increase in interest from investors in NFG, particularly in the USA. Also, IF gold itself begins a positive move, which seems to be indicated by gold's stubborn resistance to dropping much in price, gold stocks in general will likely benefit in investor interest. If so, NFG will likely be a clear target of renewed buying interest in gold stocks, as NFG is probably the biggest gold exploration outfit in the world, and is gaining renown for the incredible success they have demonstrated on NQW.

I do expect that NFG is deciding to start gold mining on NQW ASAP, as indicated with their MOU with Maritime Resources, and their $2 million CAD recent investment in Maritime.

IF the Short Position (we refer to this position as 'Lil Shorty' , because there is lots of evidence from observing bids and asks on Level 2 trading data that there is a player with large enough capital to place BIG WALLS of asks to block the stock price from rising, as well as trading action to prevent NFG stock prices from rising in the face of good news releases) is begining to realize that their viewpoint that NFG has not proven a successful commercial deposit is now wrong, they will have to renew their efforts to COVER their short position, just as they covered one million shares from last fall 2022 thru May 2023. But, now, they need to cover 1,600,000 shares sold short, and in the environment of ongoing good news flow from NFG, possible good macro events propelling gold higher, and fairly obvious increasing recognition of NFG as a stellar gold related investment, COVERING that amount of shares is going to be a problem, if NOT having a significant buying pressure on the stock price is Lil Shorty's goal.

Lil Shorty may be realizing that he has run out of ammo to combat a price uptrend for NFG, but, he still has the ATM selling from NFG to help him COVER.

All in all, it appears to me that Lil Shorty has run into trouble. As I have posted on the public message boards, Lil Shorty shoulda woulda coulda COVERED last fall in 2022. Instead, his arrogance made him double down on his Short position this summer....and now he seems to be in a fairly vulnerable position. His only saving grace is the ongoing need for NFG to raise capital. But, NFG may have new options for doing so, in light of all the positive factors working for NFG above. As of yet, there is only a small amount of institutional ownership of NFG shares. This could change, possibly quite significantly.

One final note, Lil Shorty's manipulation of NFG's stock price has benefited shareholders in being able to accumulate significantly larger positions in NFG than they would have without Lil Shorty's manipulation. Thus, this has enabled shareholders to increase their positions at very attractive prices, as their convictions in NFG's prospects have grown......for this, we owe Lil Shorty a debt of gratitude.....ironically!